Sunday, April 3, 2016

Breaking Down The Betting Odds For WrestleMania 32

It’s the most wonderful time of the year as I, Lukewarm Jonah, make a surprise return to tag team with Hott Joe and dole out WrestleMania betting advice.  According to Suze Orman, this is the year to get rich off betting on predetermined outcomes, so let’s get going.

Brock Lesnar 4/9
Dean Ambrose 9/4

Jonah: Let’s start it out with a good old fashioned streetfight.  “Crazy” Dean Ambrose taking on “Man built specifically for hand to hand combat” Brock Lesnar.  I’ll be honest, I’ve been going back and forth on who is going to win this match.  It makes sense to have Ambrose win and really elevate him to the main event scene.  It also makes sense to have Lesnar win because he’s Brock Lesnar.  I’m taking the favorite Lesnar here, with the old “Ambrose looks strong in defeat”.  I guess go for a Bret Hart/Steve Austin type finish where Ambrose won’t quit but the ref stops it.

Joe: So, it's a Street Fight? Anytime I hear that term, I always think back to the Road Warriors challenging Lex Luger and Sting to a Chicago Street Fight. Luger accepted the challenge and then asked Sting, "What's a Chicago Street Fight?" Lex Luger was a really great heel before the nWo showed up. Anyway, what were we talking about? Oh yeah, Ambrose and Lesnar. I'm going to take Lesnar as he's kind of reached the level that you should always bet on him, because it makes no sense for him to ever lose.

Team BAD and Blonde vs. Total Divas
Team BAD and Blonde +340
Team Total Divas -400

Jonah: It’s a thrilling preshow match with women who don’t like each other for some reason.  In the buildup to this match I thought Team BAD and Blonde would win and I’m sticking with that prediction even though they’re underdogs.  Lana was the featured diva in this buildup so I think her team wins with her getting the pinfall.

Joe: You're wrong, dude, and I'll fight you about it. How dare you think Team Total Divas are going down. With Daniel Bryan, John Cena, one of the Usos, the guy with no body hair, and the big goofball on their side, there's no way these ladies lose. I'll take Eva Marie by pinfall over Lana with interference from Jeremy (I assume one of the dudes on Total Divas name's is Jeremy).

Chris Jericho vs. AJ Styles
Chris Jericho -105
AJ Styles -135

Jonah: Very surprised that this match is a pick em.  I’ve got to go with AJ Styles.  Styles has come in with a bang.  He’s over with the crowd and is putting on fantastic matches.  They’ve got a main eventer here if they don’t blow it.  Jericho has been really good in his most recent run, but he has no problem putting guys over and Styles is the smart safe pick here.

Joe: This version of Jericho is the best he's been in at least half a decade. The WWE finally found a good match with him, a true face that the fans love that can go out and have good matches. Jericho has always been entertaining in the ring, but he is somebody who could use a good counterpart. Still, I'm with you on this one. Crazy that this is a pick em, I mean, you've got to think that AJ Styles is due for his Fandango-level WrestleMania moment.

Women’s Championship Match:
Charlotte 7/4
Sasha Banks 1/2
Becky Lynch 7/1

Jonah: Joe and I have already talked a bit about this match, and it’s no surprise that the heavy favorite here is Banks.  She’s phenomenal in the ring, phenomenal at promos, and even has our favorite entrance music.  Whenever I’m feeling down, I just put that song on repeat and remember that I’m a boss.  The shock here is that Lynch is a 7/1 dog.  In my opinion, she’s the second most likely winner, I think there’s a much better chance of her winning than Charlotte retaining.  The evil heel who cheats to win will finally get her comeuppance on the biggest stage of them all and one of her Horsewomen running mates will be victorious.  I’m torn, I do think Banks will win, but there’s always some surprises at Mania and 7/1 are such sweet odds.  I’ll be boring and take Banks winning by theme song domination.

Joe: And I'm going with Charlotte retaining. If it was one-on-one with Sasha Banks, I would definitely take Sasha. But with the triple threat, Charlotte can beat Becky (likely by nefarious means) and brag about how great she is. And this sets up Bayley finally joining the main roster. She can lose her title to Asuka on Friday night, and then there is really no reason for her to be in NXT. She could debut at the following night's Raw, or she could even debut at Mania to make a save (I could see Becky turning heel and joining Charlotte if that were the case). There are lots of options, but almost all of them involve Charlotte retaining her title. Guess what? I had a change of heart. I'm picking Sasha to take the title. With rumors of a Women's Title replacing the Divas Championship, they need a new champion, and they could still do all of that Bayley debut thing with Sasha, but more as a badass face (Sasha) vs. beloved face (Bayley) confrontation on Monday's Raw.

US Title Match
Kalisto -140
Ryback +125

Jonah: The US Title match is close to a pick em, with Kalisto being a slight favorite.  This means you just need to pick whoever you think is going to win this match.  I’m going with Kalisto.  The WWE used to have a little guy who wore a mask and did cool moves.  It worked out really well for them before.  Ryback now has done a random heel turn that no one cares about as well.  Look out Kane and Big Show, there’s a new big guy who randomly turns face and heel.

Joe: I kind of like the idea of an entitled Ryback winning the title, because he "looks" like a champion. He's actually been kind of good in this role in that he's not mean, it's just the way that it is. Ryback wins after reading the entirety of The Secret and Kalisto falls asleep like a little baby and gets pinned.

Hell In A Cell For Control of Monday Night Raw:
The Undertaker 8/11
Shane McMahon 9/4

Jonah: This is my favorite match of the evening.  I mean look how many words it took me just to write out what was going on in this match.  It’s also my favorite match for making money.  I’m on Team Shane O’ Mac 100%.  I was shocked when I looked at the odds and saw he was an underdog.  I mean the only logical way for the story to progress is to have Shane win and take control of Raw.  He’s also got some secret to tell that he hasn’t spilled the beans on yet.  Shane wins via interference from Dolph Ziggler or Sting or Roadblock or someone and you get paid out at better than 2/1 on your money.  Here Comes The Money indeed.

Joe: I'm taking Shane as well, but I see a different ending. I think the logical move here is that Shane throws everything he has at the Undertaker, but he gets hit with the tombstone. As Vince celebrates and yells at Taker to pin him, Taker pauses, incensing Vince. Then Taker does the honorable wrestler thing and goes out on his back. Vince announced this would be his last match, so Taker goes out on his back, pulls an unconscious Shane over him to screw over Vince and give Shane control of Monday Night Raw.

How Is This Match Happening, Let Alone on WrestleMania?
The Usos 2/5
The Dudley Boys 7/4

Jonah: So, what an underwhelming match we have here.  I mean I guess the Usos are favorites because the bad guys have been getting the upper hand the whole feud.  They’ve been around for awhile, but the crowd is just so apathetic towards them.  I’m going upset Dudley Boys here, but the real question is, who cares?

Joe: I care. The Dudley Boys won a bunch of tag titles when I wasn't watching wrestling, and The Usos are fine, like I don't really get why they are any more popular than The Ascension, but they're fine. That is why this match is so important. It is a match. Oh, wait, I guess you're right. I don't care either. I'll pick The Usos to win with help from the entire cast of Total Divas (outside of the important people like Cena and Daniel Bryan).

The Andre The Giant Memorial Battle Royal:
Braun Strowman 4/5
Bray Wyatt 5/1
Kane 13/2
Mark Henry 8/1
Randy Orton 8/1
Erick Rowan 25/1
Big Show 33/1
Samoa Joe 33/1
Bo Dallas 125/1
Curtis Axel 125/1
Damien Sandow 125/1
Fandango 125/1
Goldust 125/1
Heath Slater 125/1
Jack Swagger 125/1
R-Truth 125/1
Tyler Breeze 125/1

Jonah: So remember two years ago when this match started?  It was treated like a huge deal.  Now, it’s a preshow match.  It’s the Royal Rumble, but without any of the excitement or interest.  Anyways, I was hoping Strowman would be longer odds because he’s been protected really well and seems like a great guy to have win the battle royal and make himself important.  But I’m not picking the favorite in a match like this.  Samoa Joe is an interesting inclusion at 33/1, but I’m going longer odds.  I am legitimately picking Jack Swagger.  He’s been winning more, he and Mark Henry won a multi team match to be in the Royal Rumble and he was the face they chose to fight Chris Jericho in Canada.  It’s a great way to revamp a talented wrestler who isn’t very good on the mic, but still has a lot of years and is a good hand in the ring.  He’s probably one of five guys I’d pick to win the match and his odds are 125/1, I’ll take that all day.

Joe: I pick the same person to win this thing every year, and I don't see any reason to change now. Cesaro is scheduled to be on the European Tour that is right after WrestleMania, so he's either making a comeback at Mania or the next night on Raw. I think the next night on Raw is far more likely, but my heart will always pick Cesaro. Since he is off the board, and I'm supposed to help people win money, go with Tyler Breeze, because Breeze is fantastic and deserves to be treated as such (don't go with Tyler Breeze if you want to win money; go with Braun Strowman).

Tag Team Match:
The New Day 7/5
The League of Nations 1/2

Jonah: Wait a minute, The New Day are underdogs to the League of Booty?  Seriously?  I expected big odds the other way.  Honestly, I’m not sure why the odds are this way besides the fact that The League has lost so many times that maybe they’re due for a win?  But no, I’ll take the entertaining, charismatic group, over the half awesome half crap group any day.

Joe: Well, there are four of them. That should give them quite an advantage. I'm not sure what the end game is with this match. Like, who cares if League of Nations wins? Isn't that just a giant shrug from the crowd? And if New Day wins, we celebrate, but we don't actually care. This is a garbage match on paper, and there are a lot of fun guys in this match. I'm not going to just up and forget how much I love Rusev, but I can't really see any reason for New Day losing, so I'll go with the unicorns.

Intercontinental Title Ladder Match:
Kevin Owens 2/5
Sami Zayn 2/1
Dolph Ziggler 10/1
The Miz 25/1
Sin Cara 33/1
Zack Ryder 50/1
Stardust 50/1

Jonah: The dastardly heel who has been winning by the skin of his teeth is the overwhelming favorite?  Kevin Owens is a great character.  He’s a great wrestler.  He’s a surefire main eventer as long as they don’t screw it up, so it’s almost guaranteed that they’ll screw it up.  Anyways, I’m going with Dolph Ziggler.  I love Ziggler, but man they love to start and stop his pushes like crazy.  Still, Ziggler has a great chance of winning this match and he’s 10/1.  Too good of odds to pass up.  I do hope that Sin Cara, Zack Ryder, or Stardust somehow win the match, but that’s not very realistic.

Joe: If this were a one-on-one match between Owens and Zayn, then I would definitely be picking Sami Zayn to win the title. With everybody involved though, I do think Kevin Owens finds a way to retain. It only makes sense for Owens to retain, brag about it, but then get stuck in a one-on-one match with Sami Zayn where he finally loses the title.

World Heavyweight Championship Match:
Triple H 4/1
Roman Reigns 1/5

Jonah: Two years ago I made the mistake of betting against Cena when he was an underdog because it made sense in a storyline for him to lose.  Last year I made the mistake of betting against Triple H when he was an underdog because it made sense for him to lose.  I’m not making those mistakes again.  Against all wresting logic, against trying to get their own guy over, I’m going with Triple H.  If you don’t think that somewhere in Triple H’s mind he needs to go over at the largest attended WrestleMania in history then you have more faith in him than I do.  Maybe after he wins he’ll give him a condescending handshake and tell him “You did good kid” but Triple H somehow stands tall at the end of the night.  The other, much more likely scenario, is that Rollins comes down, Triple H thinks he’s going to help him win, but he takes Triple H out and The Shield reforms so that the crowd can cheer and go home happy and actually support Reigns.

Joe: Well, you stole my thunder with the surprise Seth Rollins appearance, but I do kind of expect that one to happen. There are a lot of rumors about him starting to work out in the ring, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was closer to coming back than people expect. Still, I don't really see the benefit of him helping either side at this point. So I'll predict that Roman Reigns wins, gets booed by the Mania crowd, and then gets attacked by Seth Rollins to huge cheers and everybody goes home happy.

Surprises You Can't Bet On:

Jonah: Dolph Ziggler will be involved in the Undertaker Shane McMahon match.  I think he’ll interfere on behalf of Shane, but it’s still possible he interferes on behalf of The Authority and turns heel.  Either way I think that makes him a good bet for the Intercontinental Title Match.  I’m also predicting appearances from Stone Cold Steve Austin and Shawn Michaels.  I mean it’s Texas after all.  Finally, my greatest prediction of all.  I believe GOP frontrunner, the possible next president of these United States, Donald Trump will make an appearance as well..

Joe: Although I mentioned an appearance from Cesaro, I'm really leaning towards that happening at Raw the next night. The return that I could see coming is the one I just mentioned with The Architect, Seth Rollins. Let's be real here; that main event match needs something to happen, and I think a Rollins run-in (back-to-back years) is just what it needs.

I'll also say that Sasha Banks is escorted to the ring by Snoop Dogg, and I think there is enough pomp and circumstance for her to have the best WrestleMania entrance this year (last year's winner was obviously Rusev on a tank).

My final prediction is that The Fabulous Freebirds attempt to show how not racist they are, but they do it in blackface, which ruins their intended purpose.

Happy WrestleMania everyone!


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